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Increasing global warming could cause longer-lasting weather patterns | In a new study, University of Missouri (MU) researchers are studying whether increasing planet temperatures and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels could lead to atmospheric blocking and when this blocking might occur, leading to more accurate forecasts. "In this research, we're trying
to see if increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the resulting atmospheric
warming will affect the onset and duration of future blocking events," said Tony
Lupo, professor and chair of the atmospheric science department at the MU College
of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. "We're hoping that the research will
add cues that could help fellow forecasters better predict blocking and warn people
in cases of long-lasting, severe weather," he added. Atmospheric blocking occurs
between 20-40 times each year and usually lasts between 8-11 days, according to
Lupo. Although they are one of the rarest weather events, blocking can trigger
dangerous conditions, such as a 2003 European heat wave that caused 40,000 deaths.
Blocking usually results when a powerful, high-pressure area gets stuck in one
place and, because they cover a large area, fronts behind them are blocked. Lupo
believes that heat sources, such as radiation, condensation, and surface heating
and cooling, have a significant role in a blocking's onset and duration. Therefore,
planetary warming could increase the frequency and impact of atmospheric blocking.
"It is anticipated that in a warmer world, blocking events will be more numerous,
weaker and longer-lived," Lupo said. "This could result in an environment with
more storms. We also anticipate the variability of weather patterns will change
dramatically over some parts of the world, such as North America, Europe and Asia,
but not in others," he added. Lupo, in collaboration with Russian researchers
from the Russian Academy of Sciences, will simulate atmospheric blocking using
computer models that mirror known blocking events, then introduce differing carbon
dioxide environments into the models to study how the dynamics of blocking events
are changed by increased atmospheric temperatures. He anticipates that final results
of the current study will be available in 2011. |
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