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'Death of Al-Qaeda No. 2 may see more decentralisation leading to popcorn violence' | The killing of 'Al-Qaeda
no. 2' Abu Yahya al Libi- the latest blow to Al-Qaeda's leadership- is likely to
result in a continuation of the decentralisation that U.S. officials and experts
have already witnessed. The chief threat was already shifting to Al-Qaeda affiliates
in other countries such as Yemen when Osama bin Laden was killed last year, reports
the Los Angeles Times. The death of Libi, second only to Al-Qaeda leader Ayman
Zawahiri, is likely to continue that trend as the rattled central organisation
tries to replace him, experts said. "Someone can always move into a No. 2 spot.
That's not the issue. But his skills are hard to replace. And the disruption pushes
their heads even lower," said Brian Michael Jenkins, senior advisor to the president
of Rand Corp. The shift in Al-Qaeda toward regional groups, in turn, could change
the focus of global terrorism, leaving local groups to attack local governments,
said Daniel L. Byman, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. The Al-Qaeda
core in Pakistan has strong connections to nearby groups such as the Pakistan
Taliban, but lacks the numbers and capacity to manage its far-flung affiliates
in Somalia or Yemen , said Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center at the
Atlantic Council. With a crippled core, the Al-Qaeda branches are still dangerous.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the Yemen affiliate that claimed responsibility
for training the underwear bomber who tried to down a jet near Detroit three years
ago, is now seen as the greatest threat to the U.S. But those different, distant
branches of Al-Qaeda may not mobilize as easily behind complex, coordinated attacks
on the West, experts said. Rand Corp. terrorism researcher Brian Jackson said
the result could be sporadic "popcorn violence" that lacks a greater strategy.
"It's an organisation that has very big aspirations. That doesn't get achieved
by a lot of little pieces of the group acting on their own," Jackson said.
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