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Pledges made at last December's United Nations climate change summit in Copenhagen are unlikely to keep global warming below the two degree Celsius mark, a new study has claimed. According to an analysis done by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, a rise of at least three degree Celsius by 2100 is likely. The team also emphasised that many countries, including the European Union (EU) members and China, have pledged slower carbon curbs than they have been achieving anyway, and said a new global deal is needed if deeper cuts are to materialise. "There's a big mismatch between the ambitious goal, which is two degree Celsius.. and the emissions reductions. It is like racing towards the cliff and hoping you stop just before it," BBC quoted Potsdam's Malte Meinshausen, as saying. According to their calculation, global emissions are likely to rise by 10 percent to 20 percent between now and 2020, and the chances of passing three degree Celsius by 2100 are greater than 50 percent. During the summit, some 120-odd countries said that they were prepared to constrain their greenhouse gas emissions, and had pledged cuts by 2020. The Potsdam team, however, concludes that many of the detailed pledges are nowhere near the ambitious claims. "The pledged emissions reductions are in most cases very unambitious," Meinshausen said. The EU, for example, had pledged to cut emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, while China promises to improve carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared against 2005.

Copenhagen carbon pledges would fail to curtail global warming: Study