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C Rangarajan releases 'Review of the Economy-2009-10' document | Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council Chairman Dr C Rangarajan on Friday released the document 'Review of the Economy-2009-10'. The documents
highlights a strong rebound in the second half of 2009-10, which has driven the
growth rate upwards, a strong rebound in the third and fourth quarter especially
industry and an outcome in the farm sector much better than feared earlier in part due
to proactive measures by government. The document highlights a projected growth
of 7.2% in 2009/10, 8.2% in 2010/11 and 9.0% in 2011/12. In 2009-2010:
Agriculture was at -0.2 percent (1.6% in 2008/09), Services: 8.7 % (9.8% in
2008/09). The document highlights that the growth may be even higher than 7.2%,
driven by strong revival in manufacturing and construction. Developed countries have
come out of recession but it is a weak recovery with downside risks to growth. The
other highlights of the document are: Financial markets nervous about fiscal
sustainability - massive increase in risk aversion; Worsening of budgetary positions in
advanced economies; Speculative pressure on commodity prices, especially the
sharp rise in crude oil prices Sharp fall in investment rate in 2008/09 reversed in
2009/10; Estimated investment rate in 2009/10: 36.2% (34.9% in 2008/09) that is
expected to pick up with improvement in domestic conditions; Estimated savings rate
34.0% in 2009/10 (32.5% in 2008/09) - will improve in the subsequent years due to
fiscal consolidation by government. Damage to Kharif output restricted, Rabi output
to be higher than last year;
Wheat output will be almost equal and pulses slightly higher than last year;
Output of Kharif rice lower by 12 million tones, but Rabi rice higher than last
year. Output of oilseeds, coarse cereals and sugarcane will be lower; Government
wheat and rice stocks to be comfortable. Strong recovery in manufacturing output
will drive growth; Recovery in manufacturing output from June 2009; Q3 growth
14.3% (0.5% in 2008/09) , Q4 will be higher at 14.6% (0.3% in 2008/09). Current
Account Deficit: - 2.2 % of GDP in 2009/10 (- 2.4 % in 2008/09); Export recovery
slower than expected, projected at $168.7 billion in 2009/10; Imports to show
significant improvement in Q4. Projected at $296.8 billion in 2009/10; Projected
merchandise trade deficit for 2009/10:$ 128.1 billion or 9.8 % of GDP; Projected
net invisibles: $98.6 billion. Strong growth in remittances and recovery in service
exports. Capital inflows of $48.5 billion in 2009/10 ($8.7 billion in 2008/09); Net
accretion to reserves: $17.6 billion (- $18.9 billion in 2008/09) Surge
in food inflation; Primary food inflation 17.9% in January 2010, manufactured
food products 26.4% in December 2009. CPI-IW 15% in December 2009; In the
short run, government must ease supply by increased distribution from stocks and in
the medium term by improving productivity; Energy index and manufacturing goods
index (except food) did not rise much for most of 2009-10 but are now moving up;
Danger of significant transfer of food price inflation to the general price
level in 2010/11; Risk of rise in international commodity prices. Credit expansion
pick up in second half and strong revival in mobilization from capital Markets;
Recovery in economy necessitates a more neutral monetary policy; RBI action
will depend on pick up in credit, liquidity conditions and further pressure on
prices; Investment climate to see rapid recovery. Need for fiscal correction;
Projected consolidated fiscal deficit: 10.3% in 2009/10 (10.4% in 2008/09);
Debt-GDP ratio 76.6% in 2009/10 (70.6% in 2000-01); Large revenue and fiscal
deficits of past two years unsustainable; Possible reduction of fiscal deficit
of centre by 1.0-1.5% in 2010/11; Feasible to reduce expenditure-GDP ratio by
1%; Expand service tax coverage. Unify the rate structure of CENVAT and service
tax and peg it between the current and the previous higher level. Some Policy
Options - management of prices, focus on agriculture and power; To cool down
food inflation: Timely release of foodgrain in sufficient quantity below prevailing
market prices: 1.Advance planning for timely imports at early signals of shortfall
in production. 2.Develop a distribution channel to supplement the PDS; Two major
constraints to growth in the medium and long term - agriculture and power:
1.Technology and organizational factors major constraints to sustainable agricultural
growth.
Improve agricultural research by stepping up fund allocation, revamping content
and extension systems. 2.Two constraints to capacity augmentation in power -
shortage
of domestic manufacturing capacity of power plant equipment and administrative
issues like land acquisition and environmental clearances. |
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