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Poll says Republican win expected in both House, Senate | A new Politico/George Washington University
Battleground Poll has said that the Republicans will pick up both the House and the Senate by a nine-point margin, even though participants are evenly divided
over whom they intend to back - Republicans or Democrats -- in six weeks. Overall,
those polled said they anticipated Republicans will have a big night, picking
up the 39 seats necessary to win the House (45-36, with 19 percent uncertain)
and the 10 needed to recapture the Senate (46-37-17). In a generic match-up between
the two parties, those surveyed were split 43-43 when asked if they would back
a Republican or a Democrat on Election Day. This is good news for Democrats and
at odds with many other public polls, which have shown Republicans holding a single-digit
edge. Democrats, the poll says, can also take some cheer from the fact that they
hold a five-point edge over Republicans in the Midwest and Northeast. In the West
- defined as Alaska , California , Hawaii , Oregon and Washington - Democrats
hold a blowout 51-31 generic advantage. Those numbers, however, are tempered by
findings that should send shudders down the spines of Democrats in the Mountain
West: In that eight-state region, where the party has made significant recent
inroads, the GOP held a 24-point lead. One reason may be the disparate levels
of voter enthusiasm. Ninety-five percent of those surveyed who usually vote Republican
said they were extremely or very likely to vote in November. For usual Democratic
voters, 87 percent said the same. The poll also showed wide enthusiasm gaps between
the youngest and oldest voters. Seventy-nine percent of voters ages 18 to 34 said
they were extremely or very likely to vote, compared with 96 percent of those
age 65 or older. When broken down by race, the gap is equally noticeable - and
politically consequential for the Democratic Party. Just 76 percent of African-Americans
said they were extremely or very likely to vote, compared with 92 percent of whites.
The rest of the poll similarly offers reasons for hope and hand-wringing for both
parties, including signs that the Democrats' blame-Bush-first campaign on the
economy is resonating but that the blame-Boehner-next campaign for everything
else has a long way to go. This is the first in a series of six bipartisan polls
that will be conducted for POLITICO and The George Washington University as part
of the nearly 20-year-old Battleground survey. The poll has a margin of error
of 3.1 percent.
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